FanBoardHQ

San Diego State

San Diego State University · 2023 · Mountain West

FanBoardHQ CFP
#108
Efficiency
-10.2
107th FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
2-6
Conf. finish
T-10th
of 12
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San Diego State went 4-8 and was ranked 108th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 97th-ranked defense carried them, with an 115th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 57% of offensive plays with a 95th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 43% of plays with a 96th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-1
Q2
0-3
Q3
0-1
Q4
4-3

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
107th
-5.2 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
80th
full season
80th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
87th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
0vs OhioMid-American#54W 2013-4.2100%1.2Q4
1vs Idaho StateBig SkyW 3628+20.2100%-22.8Q4
2vs UCLAPac-12#34L 1035-18.10%-17.5Q2
3@ Oregon StatePac-12#20L 926-28.80%-0.4Q1
4vs Boise StateMountain West#49L 3134-14.30%1.2Q3
5@ Air ForceMountain West#45L 1049-16.80%-31.0Q2
7@ Hawai'iMountain West#109W 4134+2.6100%-6.5Q4
8vs NevadaMountain West#131L 06+13.00%-29.3Q4
10vs Utah StateMountain West#94L 2432+1.80%-13.0Q4
11@ Colorado StateMountain West#97L 1922-3.70%-8.1Q4
12@ San José StateMountain West#67L 1324-14.80%-9.2Q2
13vs Fresno StateMountain West#57W 3318-6.0100%12.5Q4

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on San Diego State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-27.6-9.3+9.01-23-17-01-31-7-29-13-8-913Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 96th
SR 87thYPP 106thEPA 93rd
RushingEff 95th
SR 85thYPP 102ndEPA 92nd
Defense
Pass defenseEff 98th
SR 92ndYPP 100thEPA 94th
Rush defenseEff 135th
SR 137thYPP 131stEPA 134th
Dropback rate 43%Tempo +2.9 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 73rd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 46%1st · Defense allowed: 51%1st2nd · Offense: 40%2nd · Defense allowed: 46%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 43%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 43%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 47.0Q1 · Allowed: 29.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 66.0Q2 · Allowed: 125.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 23.0Q3 · Allowed: 69.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 96.0Q4 · Allowed: 73.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledSan Diego StateOffenseDefense
San Diego State Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 115th
-7.3
Field position: +0.1Finishing drives: -7.4
Field position +0.1Finishing drives -7.4= -7.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 63rd · Finishing 115th

Defensive EffRanked 97th
-3.2
Field position: +2.0Finishing drives: -5.2
Field position +2.0Finishing drives -5.2= -3.2
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 13th · Finishing 106th

1.73 points per drive on offense, 2.14 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 32.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(180)44% / 56%44%5.4
Q2(183)51% / 49%36%5.0
Q3(174)40% / 60%40%5.3
Q4(212)42% / 58%51%5.6
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(106)10.552%6.9
2nd(124)8.240%6.0
3rd(97)8.033%5.0
4th(4)5.325%2.5
All (331)41%6.0
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(208)9.843%4.9
2nd(124)6.940%4.5
3rd(69)4.651%6.0
4th(17)1.771%2.9
All (418)44%4.9

San Diego State, all games.